The Problem Of Certainty

On a flight yesterday, I watched The Big Short, a film about the 2008 financial crisis and a few outsiders who saw it coming when no one else did.

The opening sequence starts with this image:

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that ain’t so.” — Mark Twain

The crisis happened because many smart bankers took risky bets, certain the housing market was stable. The problem wasn’t doubt, it was their certainty. That’s what blinded them.

This problem of certainty can happen to any of us.

A manager is sure someone isn’t ready for leadership, so they never get a chance.

A salesperson is sure a client won’t buy, so they don’t try.

A founder is convinced his product is perfect and ignores feedback.

Real risk isn’t in what we don’t know. It’s in what we stop questioning.

Certainty builds confidence. But humility keeps you sharp.