A Trick To Better Decisions

Many of us get stuck weighing the pros and cons when making decisions. But there’s a trick to it: don’t just think about what could happen—think about what’s likely to happen.

Some risks seem huge in our heads, but are actually quite manageable. Conversely, some rewards look tempting but are, in reality, long shots.

When you evaluate a decision, consider the likelihood of each possible outcome. That way, you’re not paralyzed by fear or blinded by excitement.

Are you holding back because of a slim chance of failure? Or are you chasing something that seems more promising than it really is?

I first learned this when I was working in a bank years ago. In risk management, we would assess both the likelihood and the impact of risks before deciding where to invest our time and resources.

The high likelihood and high-impact risks got the most attention.

Low likelihood, low impact risks—much less.

It’s a powerful mental model for decision-making as well.

Focus where the upside is real, and the odds are on your side.